Dear Readers,
Nigeria’s energy sector is once again under the spotlight, and this time the trigger is a seemingly routine scheduled maintenance by Seplat Energy on its gas facilities. From February 12 to 15, Seplat Petroleum Development Company PLC (“Seplat”), a key joint venture partner of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (“NNPC Ltd”), has temporarily reduced production to service critical infrastructure. While such maintenance is standard practice in the oil and gas industry, the consequences are telling, even a short-term shutdown of one producer can ripple across the nation’s power grid, reducing electricity supply for millions.
At the heart of the issue is Nigeria’s reliance on natural gas. Over 70 percent of the country’s grid-connected power generation capacity is gas-fired. Major plants like Egbin, Azura-Edo, Sapele, and Transcorp depend on continuous fuel deliveries. Unlike countries with diversified energy sources or interconnected grids, Nigerian thermal plants are highly sensitive to changes in gas supply. When a major producer like Seplat temporarily lowers output, electricity generation drops almost immediately. The pipelines themselves remain operational; the shortage arises purely because there is simply not enough gas entering the system to meet demand.
This situation exposes a harsh reality that Nigeria does not produce enough domestic gas to provide true resilience. On paper, the country has some of Africa’s largest proven gas reserves and produces several billion standard cubic feet per day. In practice, however, much of this gas is exported as liquefied natural gas (LNG), reinjected into oil fields, or committed under long-term contracts. Only a fraction reaches domestic power plants. The fact that a temporary three-day maintenance at a single company can affect nationwide electricity supply shows just how tight the system is.
Another factor is concentration. A small number of upstream producers dominate the domestic market. When one producer slows output, there is limited capacity elsewhere to fill the gap. The infrastructure that moves gas like pipelines, compressors, and metering stations, is designed to handle steady flows, not sudden redistribution
The maintenance exercise also highlights the absence of a meaningful buffer in the gas-to-power value chain. Unlike fully developed markets, Nigeria lacks substantial strategic reserves or excess processing capacity to absorb fluctuations. If one company can have nationwide impact, it underscores that the country’s gas supply is barely sufficient to meet current power demand, let alone support industrial growth or increase electricity access for millions more.
Routine maintenance is necessary for safety and long-term operational integrity. Yet it is a vivid reminder that Nigeria’s gas production is still insufficiently scaled for national needs. Expanding domestic production, improving processing and distribution infrastructure including major projects like the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) and Obiafu-Obrikon-Oben (OB3) gas pipelines, and diversifying supply sources are essential steps to ensure Nigeria’s gas-to-power system can withstand routine maintenance or unexpected disruptions.
As Seplat’s maintenance continues, the nation is effectively seeing its gas production vulnerability in real time. Nigeria’s gas reserves may be vast, but production and delivery capacity are still far from adequate. If the temporary shutdown of one company can ripple across the country, the pressing question remains: how long will it take for Nigeria to move beyond reserve rhetoric and operationalize a diversified, resilient gas production and supply framework capable of absorbing operational shocks?
