INTRODUCTION
The year 2025 marks a historic inflexion point for Nigeria’s mining and solid minerals sector. It is the final year of the 10-year implementation horizon set by the 2016 Mining Roadmap (“the Roadmap”) and, at the same time, the foundation year for a new, more targeted policy era anchored on energy transition and critical minerals. Over the past decade, the Roadmap has provided a reference framework for reform, from legal and institutional restructuring to geoscience data generation and value addition. Yet, as observed in our 2025 Mid‑Year Report, implementation has been uneven, with several long-term deliverables only partially realised as the Roadmap draws to a close.
Despite these gaps, the latter part of the year, July to December 2025 has been characterised by a notable deepening of reforms and a clear sharpening of strategic focus. In H2‑2025, the Federal Government advanced an ambitious legislative agenda, progressed the operationalisation of the Nigeria Solid Minerals Company (NSMC), strengthened enforcement against illegal mining, and formally unveiled the Energy Transition and Critical Minerals (ETCM) Roadmap as a successor framework to the 2016 agenda. At the same time, Nigeria consolidated a broadening network of international partnerships, secured new investment commitments in processing and value addition, and backed its policy intentions with an unprecedented budgetary allocation for the sector in the 2026 fiscal year.
Building on the analysis and projections contained in our 2025 Mid‑Year Report, this End‑of‑Year Report assesses how the sector has evolved against the backdrop of the Roadmap’s conclusion. It provides (i) an assessment of performance and structural gaps relative to the 2016 Roadmap’s objectives, (ii) a review of key policy, regulatory, institutional, and investment developments between July and December 2025, and (iii) forward‑looking projections for 2026 in the emerging post‑Roadmap era, with particular emphasis on the ETCM value chain.
In 2016 the Federal Ministry of Mines and Steel Development published the “Roadmap for the Growth and Development of the Nigerian Mining Industry” with the objective of addressing the key challenges identified in the mining sector and outlined strategies for rapid development and utilization of key minerals and metals. The roadmap adopted a phased 10-year implementation framework comprising immediate, short, medium, and long-term actions. The long-term phase was defined as years 5–10 of the plan, and the Mining Implementation and Strategy Team (MIST) was constituted with a corresponding 10-year mandate, signifying that the roadmap was designed to conclude in 2025.
